20.18 Summary of the Model
summary(model)## Call:
## rpart(formula = form, data = ds[tr, vars], model = TRUE)
## n= 123722
##
## CP nsplit rel error xerror xstd
## 1 0.16279070 0 1.0000000 1.0000000 0.005498188
## 2 0.02628252 1 0.8372093 0.8437225 0.005154758
## 3 0.01103406 3 0.7846443 0.7888587 0.005019313
## 4 0.01000000 4 0.7736102 0.7880541 0.005017263
##
## Variable importance
## humidity_3pm sunshine temp_3pm rainfall max_temp
## 78 4 4 4 2
## rain_today wind_gust_speed humidity_9am cloud_3pm
## 2 2 1 1
##
## Node number 1: 123722 observations, complexity param=0.1627907
## predicted class=No expected loss=0.2109649 P(node) =1
## class counts: 97621 26101
## probabilities: 0.789 0.211
## left son=2 (105547 obs) right son=3 (18175 obs)
## Primary splits:
## humidity_3pm < 72.5 to the left, improve=7021.018, (0 missing)
## rainfall < 0.45 to the left, improve=4078.692, (0 missing)
## rain_today splits as LR, improve=4027.134, (0 missing)
## cloud_3pm < 6.5 to the left, improve=2868.950, (0 missing)
## sunshine < 6.05 to the right, improve=2648.879, (0 missing)
## Surrogate splits:
## sunshine < 0.45 to the right, agree=0.861, adj=0.054, (0 split)
## temp_3pm < 9.95 to the right, agree=0.860, adj=0.044, (0 split)
## max_temp < 10.55 to the right, agree=0.857, adj=0.026, (0 split)
## rainfall < 30.5 to the left, agree=0.855, adj=0.014, (0 split)
## temp_9am < -0.55 to the right, agree=0.854, adj=0.007, (0 split)
##
## Node number 2: 105547 observations
## predicted class=No expected loss=0.1410651 P(node) =0.8530981
## class counts: 90658 14889
## probabilities: 0.859 0.141
##
## Node number 3: 18175 observations, complexity param=0.02628252
## predicted class=Yes expected loss=0.3831087 P(node) =0.1469019
## class counts: 6963 11212
## probabilities: 0.383 0.617
## left son=6 (10161 obs) right son=7 (8014 obs)
## Primary splits:
## humidity_3pm < 83.5 to the left, improve=834.4563, (0 missing)
## rainfall < 2.25 to the left, improve=547.7205, (0 missing)
## rain_today splits as LR, improve=537.8750, (0 missing)
## wind_gust_speed < 42 to the left, improve=370.3472, (0 missing)
## pressure_3pm < 1012.15 to the right, improve=333.3856, (0 missing)
## Surrogate splits:
## humidity_9am < 93.5 to the left, agree=0.617, adj=0.132, (0 split)
## cloud_3pm < 7.5 to the left, agree=0.605, adj=0.104, (0 split)
## temp_3pm < 10.55 to the right, agree=0.601, adj=0.095, (0 split)
## sunshine < 0.95 to the right, agree=0.593, adj=0.076, (0 split)
## max_temp < 11.25 to the right, agree=0.592, adj=0.075, (0 split)
##
## Node number 6: 10161 observations, complexity param=0.02628252
## predicted class=No expected loss=0.4823344 P(node) =0.08212767
## class counts: 5260 4901
## probabilities: 0.518 0.482
## left son=12 (6886 obs) right son=13 (3275 obs)
## Primary splits:
## rainfall < 2.7 to the left, improve=287.0070, (0 missing)
## wind_gust_speed < 42 to the left, improve=282.3802, (0 missing)
## rain_today splits as LR, improve=278.2783, (0 missing)
## pressure_9am < 1013.35 to the right, improve=221.9931, (0 missing)
## pressure_3pm < 1012.65 to the right, improve=212.4673, (0 missing)
## Surrogate splits:
## rain_today splits as LR, agree=0.896, adj=0.677, (0 split)
## pressure_9am < 1006.65 to the right, agree=0.689, adj=0.034, (0 split)
## pressure_3pm < 1005.15 to the right, agree=0.685, adj=0.023, (0 split)
## temp_3pm < 28.05 to the left, agree=0.680, adj=0.008, (0 split)
## wind_gust_speed < 77 to the left, agree=0.680, adj=0.008, (0 split)
##
## Node number 7: 8014 observations
## predicted class=Yes expected loss=0.2125031 P(node) =0.06477425
## class counts: 1703 6311
## probabilities: 0.213 0.787
##
## Node number 12: 6886 observations, complexity param=0.01103406
## predicted class=No expected loss=0.4003776 P(node) =0.05565704
## class counts: 4129 2757
## probabilities: 0.600 0.400
## left son=24 (5118 obs) right son=25 (1768 obs)
## Primary splits:
## wind_gust_speed < 47 to the left, improve=155.98180, (0 missing)
## pressure_3pm < 1012.65 to the right, improve=128.70310, (0 missing)
## pressure_9am < 1015.45 to the right, improve=119.38520, (0 missing)
## cloud_3pm < 6.5 to the left, improve=118.68430, (0 missing)
## sunshine < 7.95 to the right, improve= 71.97008, (0 missing)
## Surrogate splits:
## wind_speed_3pm < 29 to the left, agree=0.820, adj=0.299, (0 split)
## wind_speed_9am < 23 to the left, agree=0.804, adj=0.236, (0 split)
## pressure_9am < 1008.05 to the right, agree=0.754, adj=0.044, (0 split)
## pressure_3pm < 1003.45 to the right, agree=0.752, adj=0.035, (0 split)
## humidity_9am < 56.5 to the right, agree=0.748, adj=0.020, (0 split)
##
## Node number 13: 3275 observations
## predicted class=Yes expected loss=0.3453435 P(node) =0.02647064
## class counts: 1131 2144
## probabilities: 0.345 0.655
##
## Node number 24: 5118 observations
## predicted class=No expected loss=0.3378273 P(node) =0.04136694
## class counts: 3389 1729
## probabilities: 0.662 0.338
##
## Node number 25: 1768 observations
## predicted class=Yes expected loss=0.418552 P(node) =0.0142901
## class counts: 740 1028
## probabilities: 0.419 0.581In the following pages we dissect the various components of this summary.
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